Expertise for Central Africa

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activities > rotunda policy talks > january 20, 2014: burundi’s negotiated peace settlement

E-CA — CRE-AC rotunda policy talk
 
Monsieur Stef Vandeginste, Chargé de cours, Institute of Development Policy and Management, Université d’Anvers
De heer Stef Vandeginste, Professor, Institute of Development Policy and Management, Universiteit Antwerpen
 
“Burundi’s negotiated peace settlement: relevance and limitations for the current political situation”
 
January 20, 2014

Brief historical overview (1988 – 2013)

Focus on :
1. Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement (APRA) (28 August 2000)
2. The forthcoming 2015 general elections

The Arusha Peace and reconciliation Agreement Paradox : as of January 2014 :

  • It is generally considered to have “supra-constitutional value”
  • No political actor publicly declares that time has come to archive it

Conclusions :

Quid Arusha and…

  • Institutional stability ?
    APRA was an important step in the stabilization process
    Is there a sufficient level of trust and “elite socialization” (across ethnic borders) ? Probably not yet.
  • Peace and security ?
    Is the APRA a guarantee against intra-Hutu political violence ?
    Probably not.
  • Democracy (incl. free and fair elections) and human rights (incl. fight against impunity) ?
    Does the APRA guarantee democratic 2015 elections ? No.
    Did the APRA allow for truth and justice for victims ? No.

Recommendations :

1. Conduct a pre-electoral risk analysis. Establish a pre-electoral “political turbulence”-barometer.

  • Do so jointly with other international partners.
  • Establish a link with the “Commission mixte” and the ISP/PIC preparatory process.

2. Support a policy-oriented academic reflection around the APRA :

  • Current status of implementation ?
  • Which provisions have ‘supposed supra-constitutional value’ and should ideally continue to have such value? -> link with constitutional reform process.

Q & A

Downloads :

  • The slide-based presentation of this rotunda : click here
  • The article of Prof. Stef Vandeginste in the Journal of Modern African Studies (49, 2, 2011) about “Burundi’s 2010 elections” click here